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from 18 nov thestandard

Government takes $2.44b hit on HKEx

Katherine Ng

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

The Hong Kong government has lost as much as HK$2.44 billion on its holdings in Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (0388) since the Exchange Fund bought additional shares in the bourse operator last September.
HKEx plunged 7.5 percent yesterday to a two- year low of HK$60.55 after Morgan Stanley downgraded its target price more than 49 percent from HK$75 to HK$38 in the least optimistic judgment of any investment bank.

The stock has nosedived more than 60 percent since the government snapped up shares at an average price of HK$155.22 to increase its stake to 5.88 percent from 4.41 percent on September 7, 2007. HKEx peaked at HK$265.6 on November 2 last year and since then it has fallen by as much as 77 percent.

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Morgan Stanley analyst Anil Agarwal said weaker earnings on lower turnover, investment income, data and listing fees were among its reasons for slashing the target price.

Morgan Stanley's most bullish assumption is for daily turnover on the Hong Kong exchange to average HK$47 billion a day in 2009, Agarwal said, even as other sources of revenue continue to decline.

Its most gloomy outlook was for turnover to average HK$15 billion a day as it did during the last bear market in 2004-2005.

"The stock is currently trading at 23 times 2009 earnings and our new target price implies a multiple of 14 times," said Agarwal.

Morgan Stanley maintained its "underperform" rating on HKEx.

The government would be a further HK$7.4 billion out of pocket if Morgan Stanley's target price for HKEx becomes a reality.